• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 1/
  • 2.1 The Macro-economic Situation
  • 2.2 The Agriculture Sector
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1998/99
  • 3.1 Cereal Production
  • 3.2 Fruit and Vegetable Production
  • 3.3 Livestock Production
  • 3.4 Agricultural issues and concerns
• 4. THE FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
  • 4.1 The Cereal Supply/Demand Balance in 1999/2000
  • 4.2 Household Food Security and Nutritional Status
  • 4.3 Food assistance requirements

1. OVERVIEW

In March 1999, escalating civil unrest in the Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Kosovo) led to a large-scale influx of refugees to The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, amongst other parts of the region. At the peak of the crisis in early June, an estimated 250 000 Kosovar refugees were estimated to be in the country, of which an estimated 150 000 were hosted by families, mainly in rural areas, and the remainder housed in refugee camps.

In view of concerns about the impact of the crisis on the food security situation of the country, a joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was fielded to The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia from 11-17 June. The Mission gave special attention to the impact of the large influx of refugees on the hosting population, including food consumption patterns, health and nutrition status and access to food supplies. The Mission's findings are based on discussions with Government Ministries and Departments and local authorities, UN and bilateral agencies and NGOs based in the country and on field visits to selected areas, including household interviews. In the limited time available, three field visits were carried out in some of the major agricultural production areas, as well as areas affected by the refugee influx.

The Mission found that the impact of the refugee crisis on agricultural production, food prices, and the overall food security in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia appears to have been small thanks to the quick response of the international agencies and NGOs in supplying food and other types of emergency assistance. The Mission found no evidence of significant food shortage or malnutrition problems in the country.

However, the crisis has undoubtedly aggravated the general economic instability already being experienced by the country, as a result of which, the Mission noted a significant increase in poverty levels. Affected households are having increasing difficulty paying for everyday expenses, and changes in food habits were noted. The major factor has been the collapse of trade with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, one of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's most important export markets and a vital source of raw materials. The loss of the important fruit and vegetable market in particular is reflected in lower producer prices so far this year, and farmers' financial situation has deteriorated. Non-agricultural households are also affected as interruption in the supply of raw materials for the manufacturing industry has led to an unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate in 1999.

The Mission forecasts the 1999 cereal production of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia at 759 000 tonnes, virtually unchanged from the estimated output in 1998 and well above the average of the past few years. At the forecast level, cereal production would cover about 80 percent of the domestic requirement.

Thus, the cereal import requirement for the marketing year 1999/2000 (July/June) is estimated at 117 000 tonnes, a normal level compared to the past few years, and comprising: 30 000 tonnes of wheat; 71 000 tonnes of maize; and 16 000 tonnes of other cereals. As in the past few years, the cereal import requirement is expected to be met mostly through commercial imports.

Against the requirement of wheat estimated by the Mission, food aid of 10 000 tonnes of wheat have already been pledged for families that are hosting refugees. The food needs of the refugees have been excluded when calculating the cereal balance. Their needs are being met through a separate international assistance programme.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 1/

2.1 The Macro-economic Situation

The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia became an independent state in September 1991 after splitting from the former Yugoslav Federation. In common with other transition economies, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia experienced major disruptions in production, employment and social welfare in the early 1990s. Economic management was further complicated until very recently by financial trade and transit embargoes brought on by military conflict within the region and bilateral political differences. Between 1990-1995, real GDP fell nearly 30 percent, the volume of trade flows dropped by about 40 percent, unemployment increased from 17 percent to 24 percent and consumption fell by about 5 percent a year.

In early 1994, in response to the difficult economic situation, the government introduced a stabilization programme supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. By 1996, the result of stabilization and structural reforms was beginning to show. The fiscal deficit, which had averaged 12 percent of GDP between 1992-1993 had been reduced to an estimated 0.4 percent in 1996, and correspondingly, the rate of annual inflation, which had peaked at about 1 690 percent in 1992 was reduced to 3 percent in 1996. By 1998, the economy of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia achieved a real growth rate of 3 percent, and the projection for 1999 was around 5 percent.

However, in March 1999, escalating civil unrest in the neighbouring Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Kosovo) led to a large-scale influx of refugees to The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, amongst other countries of the region, and the ensuing regional crisis has dealt yet another destabilizing blow to the country's fragile economy. At the peak of the crisis in early June, an estimated 250 000 Kosovar refugees were estimated to be in the country. Of the total, an estimated 150 000 were hosted by families, mainly in rural areas, and the remainder housed in refugee camps.

Although a peace accord was signed on 10 June and, at the time of the mission, some refugees had already begun to make their way back to their homes in Kosovo, the crisis has been yet another major shock to the process of economic stabilization in the country, with particular implications for its export earnings and manufacturing industry.

2.2 The Agriculture Sector

In common with other sectors of the economy, the agricultural sector in the Republic has undergone significant changes since the start of the transition, but especially in the last 5 years. The sector suffered after independence from the loss of traditional markets in former Yugoslavia, but its decline was much less pronounced than that of manufacturing industry.

While the current cropping pattern is similar to the cropping pattern during the time of the centralized economy, since 1993, distinct shifts in emphasis are apparent. Such changes in emphasis may be noticed in selected indicators given in Table 1 with regard to labour, tractor numbers, irrigated area, arable land and input use.

Table 1: Selected agricultural indicators

By approaching privatization less radically than some neighbouring countries and maintaining farm size at a viable level, production of most commodities has been sustained or has increased over the past five years, despite a decline in use of inputs, as shown by the indices presented in Table 2.

Table 2: Indices of Agricultural Production (1957-60 = 100)

The notable exception to the sustained performance is sheep production, reflecting a reluctance of the emerging entrepreneurs to continue with the most traditional of production enterprises. This reluctance has been exacerbated by closure of important export markets for sheep since 1996, due to a Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak.

The trends, as stated, mask fluctuations in the production of field crops from year to year and variations from region to region. Table 3 illustrates that cereal crop production varied up to 180 percent over the six-year period, whereas area only varied by 8 percent during the same period. The main cause of such variations has been fluctuation in the amount and geographical distribution of rainfall from year to year.

Table 3: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Crop Area and Production 1993-1998

With about 54 000 tractors working in the Republic with some 180 000 agricultural holdings, most families have access to mechanized land preparation. In the main cereal areas 85 percent of the farms have tractors. In general, only hillside and orchard cultivation is conducted using draught-animal power, although on small farms secondary and tertiary cultivations may also be conducted using horse-drawn or oxen-drawn harrows. Tractor hire for primary cultivation is around US$23 per hectare with subsequent disking, harrowing and seeding some US$12 per hectare, suggesting that full land preparation for cereal crops costs some US$59 per hectare (3000 to 3500 dinar).

The major livestock production areas of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are found in conjunction with the forested areas around the perimeter of the northern, western and eastern boundaries of the country extending into the hinterland by some 10-80 km. They surround the field crop growing regions, which encourages interaction and use of arable by-products.

The sub-sectors of the livestock industry have different provenances. The sheep and cattle sub-sectors have their roots in the former private sector. With the exception of 30 state farms in various stages of transition which may accommodate some 36 000 dairy cows, 90 percent of the cattle are reared on private farms in herds of 1-3 cows.

Sheep are found in the private sector in flocks of some 100-150 head, and have previously been the major livestock contributors to the GDP. In the last few years, sheep numbers have fallen due in part to changing expectations of young farmers, and in part to the 1996 Foot and Mouth Disease-related ban on exports to Italy and Greece.

The commercial pig and poultry industries are rooted in old state farms. The poultry industry comprises laying hens producing the entire national egg requirement. Poultry meat is almost entirely imported as is some 50 percent of pig and pig products. Both the local industries are maize based, and require significant imports of maize or maize based animal feeds each year.

Private farm-based pig and poultry production is based on back-yard systems using home-grown cereals and arable by-products. The cereal diets used are balanced by scavenging, rooting and grazing.

Whereas private/state dairies fulfil the wholesaler role for the marketing of cow and sheep's milk, the meat industry has no parallel structure to help develop either marketing or breed/management improvement. Further, in recent years a trend away from sheep's milk collection is emerging. Despite the clear value of sheep's cheese, labour requirement is high and isolated work in the marginal areas is not an attractive proposition for the young workforce. Sheep numbers are falling. By contrast, milking goat numbers are increasing rapidly. Goats' milk, produced in much larger volumes per animal, is easier to collect, and is also the processors' preferred commodity. Prior to the transition, goat rearing was forbidden by the State. Consequently no data are available and even now goats do not feature in the annual statistic returns.

Table 4 indicates changes in breeding stock numbers from 1993 to 1998. While, cow numbers have been steadily built up by about 8 percent over the six-year period, pig inventories have remained stable. Poultry numbers dropped in 1996 by 30 percent and haven't recovered.

Table 4: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Breeding Livestock Inventory

The most dramatic change is, however, in ewe numbers. Breeding ewes are the engine of any sheep production system and in the Republic they have declined by 49 percent over six years. Lamb meat prices are low as local supply outstrips local demand with no guaranteed export market. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia lost an important export market to the EC in 1996 due to an outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease. Since March this year, the important Kosovo market has also been lost.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1998/99

3.1 Cereal Production

Weather conditions for the 1998/99 production season have been generally favourable. Rain began on time in the autumn and fell regularly through the main growing season until April 1999. May was drier than the long-term average but with soil moisture reserves built up by the good winter rainfall, the drier period had no marked adverse effects.

Figure 1 shows rainfall data from six regions located in the main cereal growing areas which usually contribute about 40-50 percent of the winter cereal harvest. The regions, which are well distributed across the winter cereal growing zone, show a very similar pattern confirming the noted trend that this year's rain has been satisfactory.

Figure 1: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia - monthly average rainfall for 1998 and Jan.-May 1999 versus lon-term monthly average for selected major producing regions.

Seed availability for the winter cereal planting last autumn was reported to be normal. Sowing rates are generally quite high, in common with other countries in the region, at about 250-300 kg per hectare for the main crop wheat. However, for all autumn cereals a practice has evolved whereby farmers buy seeds on alternate years, using their own seed between purchases. No incidents of re-sowing were noted this year. Seed dressing is well established, a variety of internationally acceptable seed treatment chemicals are available for home use.

Regarding spring sown cereals, due to the restrictions of the previous administration there is no practice of using home-saved maize or rice seeds. Seeds were, however, available in the market as normal, no constraints in seed availability were reported to the Mission.

This year, tractors, fuel and spare parts were readily available for sowing and cultivation of both autumn and spring crops. Concern was expressed that spare parts for the older combine harvesters, purchased before privatization from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, may be in short supply this summer.

With regard to other inputs, the Mission noted that a broad-based purchasing policy of the private and public sector practiced over the past 10 years has removed any significant dependency on products from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides and fungicides were readily available, not only for autumn-sown crops, but also for the latest sowing season in April or May (1999). The most serious constraint on input use noted by the Mission was that farmers often had insufficient cash to make purchases. Access to credit is very limited for farmers, particularly those in full-time farming. Entrepreneurs with urban property bases have less trouble, but rural communities are disadvantaged, which restricts the opportunity to expand and to diversify.

Given a relative pest and disease-free year, the plentiful seeds and the continued practice of herbicide use and/or multiple cultivations, autumn-sown cereal yields this year are expected to be similar or slightly higher than last year in most areas, due to favourable precipitation.

Table 5 shows the Mission's production estimates for 1999 based on Ministry of Agriculure area estimates. Wheat area is noted to be similar to last year, whilst barley and rye areas are slightly down. The maize area has been forecast based on early planting returns information with the Ministry of Agriculture, but as the crop was still in the early stages of development during the Mission, and will not be harvested until September, the yield forecast is tentative. The Mission assumed that, barring adverse weather, yields would equal those of the previous year as high quality seeds, fertilizers and sprays were all reported to be readily available.

Table 5: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Cereal Production by Disrict, 1998 and 1999
(area: hectares, yield: tonnes/hectare, production: tonnes)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Table 5: Cont.

Table 6: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Vegetable and Fruit Production by District, 1998 and 1999
(area:hectares, yield: tonnes/hectare, production: tonnes)

The Mission forecast the 1999 total cereal harvest at about 759 000 tonnes, virtually unchanged from the previous year's crop. Wheat output is forecast at about 378 000 tonnes, 4 percent up compared to 1998. The overall output of cereals for animal feed is expected to be slightly down on last year: the maize crop is tentatively put at 200 000 tonnes and barley at 150 000 tonnes.

3.2 Fruit and Vegetable Production

The well distributed rainfall until May benefited fruit tree and vegetable crops. Given a readily available supply of chemical inputs including fertilizers, herbicides, insecticides and fungicides, average to above-average yields are expected. Vegetable seeds are imported from a variety of countries, the most common, however, originate from Holland. Such seeds are readily available in the main production areas.

Early returns of spring fruits and vegetables suggest an increase from 4-7 percent in planted area, as shown by region in Table 6. Significantly increased areas of tomatoes in Gevgelija, Radovic and Bitola indicate the widespread interest in this crop which can give good returns and has encouraged expensive investment in greenhouse and irrigation systems in some parts.

Regions bordering Kosovo, namely Skopje-Gazibaba, Tetovo and Kumanova, show no signification variation in area of spring vegetables planted.

The Mission noted considerable concern over vegetable and fruit marketing difficulties as a result of lost markets to the Yugoslav Federal Republic, in particular Kosovo. Difficulties were expected to worsen in the coming weeks as the bulk of crop matured, and are compounded by a lack of accessible agro-processing units at village/municipality level. Wholesale market price information available to the Mission indicated that already in April and May the prices for some of the more common vegetables were somewhat below those of a year earlier.

3.3 Livestock Production

Livestock production in 1999 is noted to be similar to recent years. This year there have been no untoward incidents of livestock diseases, similarly support services are available and the well distributed and average rainfall is noted to have produced adequate supplies of forage. Maize and barley feed supplements will be required during marketing year 1999/2000, at a level similar to recent years.

The Mission noted that a stock ear-tagging scheme is to be introduced next year as a prelude to re-entering the EU market. This positive step should re-vitalize the flagging sheep industry. It also provides an opportunity to improve indigenous breeds and management practices if the farmers can be encouraged to extend stock recording for those purposes.

3.4 Agricultural issues and concerns

• Absence of credit for rural enterprises is restricting development.
  
  
• Agro-processing units at village or municipality level are absent. Supplies of spring vegetables are inevitably wasted and prices affected accordingly.
  
  
• Loss of the EU market has had a considerable effect on the sheep industry; loss of key markets has been exacerbated by recent loss of the Kosovo market, which may be reversed following the return of the refugees in June.
  
  
• EU tagging programme for sheep offers an opportunity to re-enter the European market and to re-vitalize production systems through on farm record keeping for management and indigenous breed improvement.
  
  

4. THE FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

The Republic has a structural production deficit for several major agricultural commodities, in particular, cereals, sugar, oilseeds and meat (other than sheep). In general, the urban population is heavily dependent on imported foodstuffs while the rural population comes much closer to self-sufficiency. Prior to the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, the cereal production deficit of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was entirely covered by inter-republican trade, particularly from Serbia (Vojvodina). Since independence and liberalization of trade in 1991, the source of the Republic's cereal imports have been diversified, with less dependence on supplies from Serbia. The Mission interviewed two of the Republic's largest wheat milling enterprises who indicated that they purchase wheat from a variety of major producers throughout the globe including other European countries, Argentina and the United States.

The Republic's annual deficit of wheat that needs to be imported has averaged around 100 000 tonnes over the past few years, but has varied according to the volume of the domestic wheat harvest.

With regard to the current situation, no major difficulties in meeting the normal food needs of the Republic have been reported as a result of the Kosovo crisis. Since the onset of the crisis the additional food needs of the refugee population have been mostly met through international assistance programmes. The most notable undesirable impact has been a considerable market surplus of normally exported foods, mostly fresh vegetables and fruits and lamb, because of the disruption to normal trade flows, particularly to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. As a result, the financial situation of many farmers has deteriorated this year. Wholesale prices of the fresh vegetable commodities such as tomatoes and cucumber, which are important export crops, were noted to be lower in April and May compared to a year ago.

4.1 The Cereal Supply/Demand Balance in 1999/2000

The estimated balance for 1999/2000 prepared by the Mission is shown in Table 7, and is based on the following assumptions:

• a projected mid-marketing year (December 1999) population of 2.032 million;
  
  
• a per capita consumption of 170 kg of wheat and 5 kg of rice per annum;
  
  
• an animal feed use comprising 250 000 tonnes of maize for pigs and poultry, and 175 000 tonnes of mixed cereals for sheep and cattle;
  
  
• a seed requirement of 250 kg per hectare for wheat, 20 kg per hectare for maize, and about 250 kg per hectare for other cereals;
  
  
• storage losses of 3 percent for wheat, 10 percent for maize and 5 percent for other cereals;
  
  
• opening stocks of 30 000 tonnes of wheat equivalent or one months national requirement, 5 000 tonnes of maize, and 1 000 tonnes of rice;
  
  
• no significant draw-down or build-up of cereal stocks during the marketing year;
  
  
• the cereal needs of refugees still in the country in 1999/2000 would be met through additional food aid deliveries.
  
  

Table 7: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Cereal Balance for 1999/2000 (000 tonnes)

Table 6 shows that the cereal import requirement for the marketing year 1999/2000 (July/June) is estimated at 112 000 tonnes. Reflecting the above-average domestic wheat crop expected this year, the estimated wheat import requirement, at 30 000 tonnes, is significantly lower than the average of the past few years. Furthermore, at the time of the Mission, it was known that 10 000 tonnes of wheat aid had been pledged for the July to December period, to be targeted at the families hosting refugees. The import requirement for maize and other cereals, mostly to be used for animal feed, totals 87 000 tonnes, and falls within the normal range. As in the past few years, the cereal import requirement is expected to be met through commercial imports.

4.2 Household Food Security and Nutritional Status

The Mission did not find any significant evidence of either food shortage or undernutrition in the country, and the refugee crisis appears to have had little or no effect on the overall food security situation. At the time of the mission more than 250 000 refugees were registered in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, of which approximately 100 000 in camps, and the rest in host families. Both refugees and host families were receiving food assistance. Rapid health assessments carried out in camps did not identify significant undernutrition problems.

Compared to other countries with similar economic conditions, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has a favourable profile, with higher life expectancy and lower infant mortality. Partly because of the acknowledged absence of malnutrition and consequently low priority given by the government, major nutritional surveys have not been carried out on a regular basis and there is therefore a lack of information on both anthropometric indicators and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices of the different population groups. Protein Energy Malnutrition does not appear to constitute a significant problem in the country. Obesity is prevalent in all age groups, and affects more than half of the adult population over 40which has been associated with high incidence of smoking, lack of exercise and excessive consumption of alcohol . There is evidence of micro-nutrient deficiencies (in particular Vitamin D and iron), especially among vulnerable population groups. UNICEF is planning a major nutrition survey for September as a much-needed basis for appropriate planning.

The general economic instability in the country over the past few years, undoubtedly aggravated by the recent Kosovo crisis, has however dramatically increased poverty levels in the country. The Government and affected households have increasing difficulties to cope with the situation. Farming households have not necessarily been the most affected. Agricultural employment represented in 1997 just under 18 percent of total employment and rural households usually combine production for home consumption, sale of agricultural production and other sources of income (employment, trade or remittances). The Mission noted that, as a result of the crisis, farmers were experiencing difficulties in selling their surplus production and many employees have lost their jobs. Unemployment, estimated at 35 percent in 1998 is believed now to have reached 40 percent. Affected households have increasing difficulties in paying everyday expenses such as bills (in particular electricity), taxes, social security contributions (with results in decreased health care) and pension funds. Coping strategies include changes in food habits, and in particular a decrease in the consumption of meat products. Maintenance of their productive assets is increasingly difficult and long-term livelihood systems will likely be compromised if the overall economic situation does not improve in the coming months. Farming households which were until now self-reliant complained that they were in a more difficult situation than poorer neighbours who received remittances, were registered as social cases and had free access to health services.

Traditionally vulnerable population groups include isolated communities in remote mountainous areas - which remain primarily subsistence farmers - and Rom communities, in particular in urban areas. Although they are unlikely to be directly affected by the crisis, they are certainly suffering from the constraints of an overwhelmed social security system. The number of social cases entitled to receive financial support from the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy was estimated in 1993 at 22 000. At the time of the Mission, 12 percent of the total population (that is around 63 000 households) was reported to be receiving cash benefits calculated on the basis of a relative poverty line and amount to US$25-75 a month according to the size of the household.

4.3 Food assistance requirements

Although poverty is widespread, coping mechanisms of households whose incomes are strained do not include, so far, major reduction in food intake or, apparently, intra-household redistribution. While the government understandably faces increasing difficulties in facing its financial obligations (salaries, pensions and assistance to social cases), a major social case food programme is being launched to assist the population of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. From July through December 1999, at least in a first phase, households registered in the social case programme will receive additional assistance. Under a recently signed agreement, a consortium of donors (including ECHO and USAID) and NGOs (including InterSOS, CRS, MCI, and German, French, American and The Former Republic of Macedonia Red Cross groups) will distribute a food basket to the current welfare recipients who are in the categories of "most vulnerable", pensioners, partially employed, and unemployed in selected hard-hit towns. More than 60 000 families (that is more than the total refugee caseload at the height of the crisis), all of whom already receive a cash benefit from the Government, will receive an average monthly ration of 25 kg wheat flour; 3 Litres vegetable oil; 3 kg pulses; 2 kg sugar; and 0.5 kg salt. Although the rationale for providing assistance in the form of food aid is not clear from the agreement or supporting documents, this is considered as an income transfer that will allow the household to save on food expenses and reallocate its budget where needed. This will likely increase the dissatisfaction of families who are not registered as social cases.

Based upon its observations as summarized above, the Mission concludes that there is no need for emergency food assistance to the population of The Former Republic of Macedonia. Indeed the desirability of the continuing flow of food into the country (for refugee population, for "social cases") in a European context should be reviewed by Government and donors. Other forms of assistance may be urgently needed, in particular in re-establishing markets for both agricultural and industrial products, which have been disrupted over the past years.

The absence of significant undernutrition does not mean that an integrated approach to monitor and improve the nutrition situation in the country is not needed. The preparation of a National Plan of Action for Nutrition, with a substantial nutrition education component would be highly desirable.

Once the present crisis is over, the sustainability and appropriateness of the social case programme may also need to be reassessed and some degree of decentralization of the system for improved targeting should be considered. Specific attention should also be given to increase resilience of vulnerable population groups.

This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required.
Abdur Rashid Chief, GIEWS FAO Telex 610181 FAO I Fax: 0039-06-5705-4495 E-mail:[email protected].	Ms. J. Cheng-Hopkins Regional Director, OAC, WFP Telex: 626675 WFP 1 Fax: 0039-06-6513-2863 E-Mail: [email protected]
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